jdfort94 Publish time 2015-1-6 20:34:01

IM Shop - dishonest odds?

Hi there, I just wanted to tell you my experience. Since I read many times that IM drops are completely random and all cards are equally likely to appear, I made some calculations and decided to start buying both, Tefnut and Lamia at the same time. My first purchase was on 22nd December, first refresh of the day, I bought Tefnut; next refresh same day Lamia appeared and I also bought her. Since then I've checked daily both refreshes anxiously. Today, 6th January 30 refreshes after neither of them have shown up again in IM. Take into account that I'm looking for 2 cards, Tefnut and Lamia, so possibilities that one of them appears in a refresh are twice than if I was looking for only one.  

This could be bad luck, an outlier in the Gaussian distribution, but reading your comments confirmed my suspicion: there're more factors apart from randomness in the IM refresh system.

I have the suspicion, cannot be confirmed, that the system is flawed. Somehow analyses or your deck, or your purchased cards or I dunno, and take those cards from the "shuffle system" for a determined time, forcing you to spend gold to manually refresh the shop.

This is not the only issue I have noticed. I dunno you guys, but my IM shop refreshes only partially since January, since the patch was implemented. Most of the times, only one of the 2 slots for cards refreshes, the other just stays the same. So refresh rate falls 50%. I can't believe it's just luck that most times the card that remains the same from one refresh to another have appeared just by randomness: it's almost impossible.

If nothing changes, I'll continue having Terasaur in IM almost daily. Really, I've seen him like 6 times since he was implemented. Mmm, and don't forget about Stormy Vellamo or Great Horned Arach, I could have built both them in this 2 weeks; of course only if the % system was real and not affected by your purchases or deck.

What are your thoughts on this?

cuddle13 Publish time 2015-1-6 20:44:03

I'm having very bad luck with Tefnut also. So far 0/8. Haven't seen her at all.
However, based on what Phate posted about his refresh experience (and with gold). He was able to get his Tefnut finished but Lamia may have only showed once? I do believe that we are just very unlucky.
It's not more than having a 55% chance of upgrading a gear and yet you see it fail 5 times in a row.. really?!!! Maybe they have set their standard deviation too wide (high?)
I think I saw someone posted SH's comment on this stating that each card has equal odd. I don't think they need to lie. Either there is some sort of coding issue or that each card indeed has the same chance to appear in shop. We just notice the ones we don't want more (let's face it, each of us probably wanted 2 or 3 cards but there are 9-10 cards we don't want? sorry i don't have the exact numbers).

just my 2 cents.

jdfort94 Publish time 2015-1-6 20:55:52

BTW: Arena's last refresh same cards as the 2 previous ones, Queen Succubi and Jahi. First completed and the second one I haven't bought any copy as it's not on my plans for now.

I think there's a problem with the coding issue or with the real % shown compared with the actual one in many aspects of the game (also with upgrading equipment). An increased standard deviation would partially explain this if we also add the bad luck factor. In addition, setting a huge SD is also flawing %, as it does not represent the real chance.

I plan to send a ticket to SH to ask for an explanation, I have just to be careful with what I say in the ticket so it doesn't sound as an attack, but as a doubt. If anyone wants to contribute with it, post in here please.

cuddle13 Publish time 2015-1-6 21:07:19

if you don't mind, hold off until they fix the iOS loading and image issues first? That needs to be fixed ASAP. It's impacting gameplay.

jdfort94 Publish time 2015-1-6 21:12:07

Great idea, I will, that's causing major problems and needs to be solved soon.

cuddle13 Publish time 2015-1-6 21:12:51

thanks! :P
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