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Author: Laserman

Tokay, can we get this fixed please? [Copy link]

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2015-3-17 00:15:01 |Show all posts
FlightTribe replied at 2015-3-12 17:24
Only the arena shop was modified.

To clarify, the R4s in slot 4 are the normal ones you can get in- ...

What about the IM shop?

There are the 1st 7 cards that show in both slots and the rest all in one or the other slot.
That's a bigger problem then the Arena shop.

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Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2015-3-17 00:21:48 |Show all posts
Edited by Laserman at 2015-3-17 00:35
Spike13 replied at 2015-3-12 17:26
Before we had 7,14% chance. Of getting a specific UR in the 4th slot and 8,33% chance in the 8th sl ...

Actually, that's not true!
Look at the last chart I posted for the Arena.


You had a less then 5.5% chance of getting a UR.
Now, you have 12 UR's that can appear in 1 slot in any given set, that's a 8.33% (1/12)  chance.
I'd take 8.33% over 5.5% any day.

Not to mention, how many times did you get a set that had 2 SR's in the 2 slots and no UR?
Very seldom did you get 2 UR's in the 2 slots. This is a much better arrangement!
Thank-you Spicy Horse for fixing this shop!

Now cen we get a fix the IM shop?

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Rank: 6Rank: 6

Post time 2015-3-17 02:10:41 |Show all posts
Edited by Spike13 at 2015-3-17 02:12

In the chart i read 7,14 and 8,33 under chance.

The fact that with a popr data pool and a worng math you got a wrong % is your problem...

But your 5,5% is with the 100% being both the pool, so actually you 5,5 is on a 200% or a 11% of finding that CL in his spot. More than 1 CL in 10 days.
Now you will see him onelce every 2 weeks. That being CL high on the media is not a problem, right now... Just nothing has changed!

Also, what i posted is math. A simple calculation about %.
Before saying something is wrong, pleas, do 2 things:
1.Consider that math doesn't lie, even if your perceptions seems different.
2.Verify that the % on your chart aren't based on a wrong calculation or telling you something else (like you have less than 5,5 per spot to find a card and you actually have 2 spot... When tomorrow you have 8 per spot and only one spot.... )
Arena shop isn't fixed, things are changed only to stay the same.... If you don't get that... You've been fooled for good...

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Post time 2015-3-17 02:27:58 |Show all posts
Edited by Laserman at 2015-3-17 02:53
Spike13 replied at 2015-3-17 02:10
In the chart i read 7,14 and 8,33 under chance.

The fact that with a popr data pool and a worng mat ...

There was plenty of data taken and the data shows what the real chance is.

The calculated chance doesn't account for some things.
Slot 4 has 7 SR's and 7 UR's, so you have a 50% chance of SR vs UR, 1/7 is 14.3%, so 7.15% that it might be a UR.Slot 8 has 7 SR's and 5 UR's, so you have a 58.3% chance of SR vs UR, 1/12 is 8.33%, so 8.33% of 41.7% is 3.475% it might be a UR.

So that says you have 54% chance overall of a SR vs a UR.
Look at the chart? Son of a gun, we hit 53% SR!

The SR's have a 7/7 chance and 7/5 chance for a combined 14 to 12. the UR's are in one slot only! So in any given set, a SR has 14 chances and one group of UR's has 7 and the other only 5.

So, SR is 14/26 (54%), group 1 UR is 7/26 (27%) and group 2 UR is 5/26 (19%).
That's why the chart is like it is. It's made from real data out of 417 sets. It may be a little off, but not by much.
Now you get SR in slot 4 only and UR in slot 8 only. Right there you have a 50% chance of UR rather then 46%.
All the UR's have an Equal chance @ 8.33% to appear in that slot. This is an improvement.
The probelm if any with this change is when they add more UR's to the pool, that will dilute the odds of a particular UR to appear. But they will have an eqaul chance! The existing method they didn't have an equal chance. Thye told us that UR's had an equal chance to appear when introduced to the shops, and now they do in this shop.




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Post time 2015-3-17 04:15:48 |Show all posts
Edited by Spike13 at 2015-3-17 04:21

This sentence is wrong:
"Slot 8 has 7 SR's and 5 UR's, so you have a 58.3% chance of SR vs UR, 1/12 is 8.33%, so 8.33% of 41.7% is 3.475% it might be a UR."
Correct sentence would have been:.
Slot 8 has 7 SR's and 5 UR's, so you have a 58.3% chance of SR vs UR, 1/5 is 20%, so 20% of 41.7% is 8,33% it might be a specific UR.
The calculated chance is correct. Your data pool is tiny, and be that way it show results fairy accordimg the calculated data but still with significant deviation due to the low number of trial (yes, statistically speaking hundreds is a tiny data pool, try with hundreds).
The chart however is confusing, due to the presentation of data being misleading (in shows the chance of a card appearing if the same pool of cards where in only one slot, but they are actually in 2 slot, so the real chance is doubled...

So in the end the only things that changed is for the 7 ur that got 7,15% to rise to 8,33%... Until they will add new ur, after that the % will drop a double speed due to the increment in total number not to be divided anymore between 2 Slot but put all in slot 8... So in the long run, a loss...
And your "victory" of a 3% (not so relevant) now would become a tie woth 2 more ur added (in the old system would have made 14 vs 14? So your 50%) and a loss when the third UR will be added...

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Post time 2015-3-17 05:03:01 |Show all posts
Spike13 replied at 2015-3-17 04:15
This sentence is wrong:
"Slot 8 has 7 SR's and 5 UR's, so you have a 58.3% chance of SR vs UR, 1/12  ...

Go back and re-read the thread!

I said from the very beginning that the "equal" chances for UR's in the Arena Shop were not very far off.
So, yeah, maybe it's a small change, but the fact is that now, the chance for any given UR to appear in this shop is Equal. And that's what we asked for!

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Post time 2015-3-17 05:30:44 |Show all posts
That is not "equal chance for UR. Is simply equal chance "between" UR.
And to obtain that at the cost of incrising the drop speed of the chance of finding a specific UR, don't seem a victory at all...
Eliminate the SR vould have been a victory and equal chance
or putting those 7 SR in only one spot mixed with the UR would have been a victory and equal chance
Or putting both sr and ur in both spot would have been a victory and equal chance...

This... Is gonna be worse than the previous sistem ....

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Post time 2015-3-17 05:38:59 |Show all posts
Edited by Laserman at 2015-3-17 05:41
Spike13 replied at 2015-3-17 05:30
That is not "equal chance for UR. Is simply equal chance "between" UR.
And to obtain that at the co ...

There is now 50% SR and UR in each set.
Before it was 54% SR and 46% UR. That's an improvement.

There are 12 UR's that can appear in 1 slot, 1 in 12 is 8.33%, which is better odds then before.

They claimed that the chance for any UR in a shop was "equal". Before it wasn't, now it is in the Arena shop.
The Arena Shop now has equal chance for any UR to appear in that one slot. Problem in that shop is solved.

This thread was stated toi get the chances for UR's in the IM shop to be equal.
The Arena shop was a small problem compared to the IM shop.

We still need the IM shop fixed.


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Post time 2015-3-17 06:29:29 |Show all posts
LOL your vision is REALLY limited.
Even removing the UR would have made the chances of finding them equal...

You are ignoring the fact that a 0,5% gain in odds has been exchanged with a higher worsening rate of the very same chances.... And that is hardly an improvement!
I just don't understand if you are ignoring it 'cause you wish to be right or 'cause you don't get it...

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Post time 2015-3-17 06:53:01 |Show all posts
Spike13 replied at 2015-3-17 06:29
LOL your vision is REALLY limited.
Even removing the UR would have made the chances of finding them  ...

How has the chance been worsened?

You now have a 50% of the cards in the set are UR vs. 46% before.
The chances of what UR appears went up to 8.33%.

All we asked for is that the chances for any UR in a shop to be equal, as Spicy Horse claimed they were, but in fact, they were not.

So now the Arena shop does have an equal chance for any UR to appear, with a better percent of appearance.

The OP and the thread did not ask them to remove SR's from this shop to "Greatly" increase the chances of getting UR's in this shop.

The Solution provided is more then fair.
Please provide the "math" that proves that the odds are worsened.

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