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Author: tokay

Critical Announcement - Last Days of Eternity [Copy link]

Rank: 6Rank: 6

Post time 2015-8-16 09:40:50 |Show all posts
Aethelred... Would you happen to be privy if SpicyHorse are in a position to sell the title to another company that could maintain it? DeNA, although the bad guy in the SH relationship apparently, would do well to purchase the title and develop it above their other offerings because the gate is superior to all their titles combined.
Although, I am quite happy to continue playing until it is shut down, I would much prefer to think that it would live on forever whether in the house of SpicyHorse or another!!

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Rank: 6Rank: 6

Post time 2015-8-16 09:49:38 |Show all posts
Webby replied at 2015-8-15 09:33
Ahhh missed the mark on that one...Pattaya not my scene, though appreciate why it might be for oth ...

Yeah, Pattaya has its attributes if you are looking for a good time. I prefer Koh Samui or any of the islands in the south, except there are far too many foreigners. If I reach retirement then Thailand will be where I end also.

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Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2015-8-16 10:42:08 |Show all posts
s474n replied at 2015-8-16 08:49
Yeah, Pattaya has its attributes if you are looking for a good time. I prefer Koh Samui or any of  ...

Koh Chang is nice too. Though less now with developers/tourists but still nice....Great roads (health and safety checked they are not!)

Retirement....hmmm... Here or Alaska, still aint decided ;)

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Rank: 3Rank: 3

Post time 2015-8-16 10:46:17 |Show all posts
Aethelred42 replied at 2015-8-15 10:44
The whole f2p model stinks.

I agree 100%

As far as people in the forums are concerned it seems it's about a 50/50 split between people who've been through previous F2P game ending and those who are experiencing it for the first time....

This may seem harsh, but: Get use to it...if you continue to game you WILL encounter it again, I guarantee it..

Don't take me wrong, I'll continue to play F2P games..even spend money on them.. My intentions are not to drive people away from them..just keep in mind how the F2P game model works..they have a life cycle that will eventually end..

If you find another that you enjoy by all means support the game and it's parent company through purchases..the more money the game makes the longer it lives.. But blindly dumping a bunch of money into these games as if it were an investment will eventually end badly.. Spend because you enjoy it, kinda like going to the theater...paying just to have a good time..

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Post time 2015-8-16 23:58:28 |Show all posts
I am honestly thankful we received this early announcement.

On my previous two games they just stopped doing updates for a year (publisher's response in both cases: minor issues with a dev team) and afterwards, closed completely after week or two in-advance warning.

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Rank: 6Rank: 6

Post time 2015-8-18 03:59:37 |Show all posts
A week after the announcement,i still cant believe The Gate is going to shut so soon,as i said in another thread,not that i expected the game to run forever,but i wanted to see more from it before it would eventually come to an end.

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Rank: 4

Post time 2015-8-18 14:51:04 |Show all posts
it is not going to shut just yet- just go in no more new content mode- there are plenty of games in that mode about which people seem to play as well -

and you can Always hope steam is a huge success and they will start doing stuff for steam once it catches up and push it here as well

stranger things have happened

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Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9

Post time 2015-8-19 15:52:36 |Show all posts
s474n replied at 2015-8-16 09:40
Aethelred... Would you happen to be privy if SpicyHorse are in a position to sell the title to anoth ...

I understand you ask questions like this because you want to see the game live on, but try to keep in mind that this sort of brainstorming is what I'm doing day-in-day-out. All kinds of ideas like this have been explored... and then some! Can we sell The Gate? Can we license it to someone else? Can we bundle it with our other games, sell our studio, sell our limbs, rent out advertising space on our foreheads... Trust me, I've been through the whole list. Twice.

The simple answer is this: If it were worth enough monthly cash flow that another company would want to buy it... then why would we sell it? The only reason someone would buy it is if it's generating income - as in, they buy it expecting it will recoup their investment, and then earn them a profit on top of that investment. Simple stuff... "buy low, sell high."

The issue is, as I have said before, User Acquisition (UA). UA is what DeNA were responsible for. They were obligated to spend a certain (very small) % of their share of the game's income on UA. That % might have been meaningful when we signed the deal, but UA costs have gone THROUGH THE ROOF in the last two years. Used to be you could buy a new user for $1 (that's a cost per install). Now days? That cost can be anywhere from $10 to $30. Imagine that... paying $10 or $20 or $30 just to get a player to *install* the game. And you need thousands of new users per day or the game is going to die.

You want 1500 new users per day? Users cost $8 each? That's going to be 336,000USD per month, thank you very much!

Now imagine... how many of those installs will stay in the game? How many will convert to paying customers? How much are they going to spend? This is your Life Time Value (LTV) for a customer. You want to know if a game will make money? Then you look to see if LTV is greater or less than the cost of UA. If UA costs $25, and you are certain of a $35 LTV... then you'll make money. Yay!

Thing is, no game has a $25 LTV. $5 is considered great, $7 is a amazing. $10? Very, very, very rare.

And yet, lots of publishers out there spending $10+ on buying installs for their games. They are artificially driving the price of UA up beyond the amount of money they can expect to get as ROI from those customers. Put simply, they are spending more than they are making.

Why?

It's a war of attrition. Big players with big bank accounts battling each other for market dominance.

Indie developers are being destroyed left and right while the giants do battle.

Again, would be great if one day I came over here and read that one of you had solved all our problems with an idea like "why don't they just sell it to another company?"

But, no, not going to happen. No offense, but I don't think you can synthesize a solution to a problem when you don't understand the environment in which the problem exists and the forces that brought it into being.

If you are interested, you might study the science of all this:
http://blog.gameanalytics.com/bl ... -freemium-apps.html
http://mobiledevmemo.com/10-commandments-mobile-user-acquisition/

If you're like me, it'll just make you depressed ;) Have fun!

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Rank: 6Rank: 6

Post time 2015-8-19 16:08:54 |Show all posts
Very true Tokay, the facts you laid out concerning the viability of mobile gaming. Either it's a surprise hit that hits the jackpot when going viral or it's the big players, there's hardly a profitable middle-ground. Which makes one wonder why even bother when the market situation is so bad? I bet it's 'cos you game developers love gaming as much as we players

But regarding the selling of a title, it's not so black-and-white as you said. Buyers rarely buy companies, licenses or products because they're making profit today. That's because such things are rarely for sale. Buyers buy because of POTENTIAL, the buyer has the assets to turn the item in question around to make it profitable. That goes for all business areas, not just games.

And we players still refuse to let go of the delusion that The Gate has huge potential!

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Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9

Post time 2015-8-19 16:31:50 |Show all posts
But regarding the selling of a title, it's not so black-and-white as you said. Buyers rarely buy companies, licenses or products because they're making profit today. That's because such things are rarely for sale. Buyers buy because of POTENTIAL, the buyer has the assets to turn the item in question around to make it profitable. That goes for all business areas, not just games.


Ok, so you think Spicy Horse and The Gate have "potential?" Perhaps you could explain why we've not been bought by one of these potential seeking companies you speak of? Also, could you point to a couple of companies that were bought even though they we not making a profit (and had no assets to which anyone would assign any value)?

While you're doing that... I will explain what I've learned when we speak with VCs, angels, corporate investors, game publishers, banks, agents, and other potential sources of funding:

Games are insanely risky. It's a hit-driven business. Maybe 1 game out of 10,000 will become a hit. There is no magic formula to making hit games, and if there were you'd see companies like EA (fill in the blank with any name you like) using it to repeatedly make hits.

LPs (Limited Partners, AKA the investor's investor) want a sure return on their money. They are not looking to be speculative. Money from these guys goes to where a model or market has been proven. It's "gas on the fire," not "kindling for the fire."

Again, not trying to be offensive here, but how many games or game companies have you sold? How many investor, publisher, bank, etc meetings have you gone to and pitched your ideas? How many of these kinds of deals have you signed? Just trying to understand where you're getting your data.

It's one thing to sit here on the forum and second-guess what you think's going on behind the scenes. Totally different thing to actually go out into the world and try to close a deal based on the assumption that "buyers buy because of potential." That might be the case in other areas of business, but it is not the case in the game market of today.

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